The Trump administration, in considering China’s demand to “oppose” Taiwanese independence, risks making a dangerous miscalculation that could catastrophically backfire. The belief that a concession on Taiwan might placate Beijing and lead to a better trade deal fundamentally misunderstands the nature of China’s strategic ambitions.
Appeasement in this context is unlikely to lead to Chinese gratitude or moderation. Instead, it would be interpreted in Beijing as a sign of American weakness and declining resolve. As noted by analyst Craig Singleton, China’s strategy is to “pocket small wins and then push for more.” A victory on Taiwan’s status would not end Chinese demands; it would only embolden Beijing to press its advantage more aggressively on other fronts, such as the South China Sea or its human rights record.
Furthermore, a U.S. policy shift could provoke the very crisis it is intended to avoid. A declaration of “opposition” from Washington might be seen by some hardliners in Beijing as a green light to escalate their campaign of coercion against Taiwan, believing the U.S. has given up its role as a protector. This could lead China to overplay its hand, triggering a regional conflict that the U.S. would inevitably be drawn into.
On the other side, a feeling of utter abandonment could push Taiwan towards more radical options. While unlikely, the prospect of a desperate, cornered Taiwan making a dash for formal independence or even pursuing its own nuclear deterrent cannot be entirely dismissed in a scenario where its primary security guarantor has turned against it.
The greatest danger, therefore, lies in the potential for a chain reaction of unintended consequences. The seemingly “safe” option of appeasement could unleash a series of miscalculations in Beijing and Taipei, leading to a far more volatile and conflict-prone situation than the current, albeit tense, status quo.