After the diplomatic storm unleashed by President Donald Trump’s UN speech, the critical question for both Washington and New Delhi is: what’s next for the fractured US-India relationship? The public accusations and underlying policy disputes have created a deep rift that will be difficult to mend.
In the immediate term, India must formulate a response. A continued strategy of quiet, non-confrontational diplomacy may no longer be sufficient. New Delhi may feel compelled to issue a more robust public defense of its policies and a direct rebuttal of Trump’s claims, a move that could escalate the war of words.
The economic front is likely to see further conflict. With Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirming that more sanctions are on the table, India must prepare for the possibility of even higher tariffs. This could lead to retaliatory measures from India, pushing the two nations closer to a full-blown trade war.
The future of strategic cooperation is also in jeopardy. The trust that underpins partnerships like the Quad has been damaged. It will be harder for the two countries to collaborate on sensitive security issues when their fundamental respect for each other’s sovereignty and interests is being so openly questioned.
One potential, if optimistic, outcome is a diplomatic reset. The crisis could force both sides to the negotiating table for a frank discussion about their red lines. However, given the “mercurial” nature of the Trump presidency, as noted by Shashi Tharoor, the path forward is more likely to be unpredictable, with the potential for both further deterioration and surprise reconciliation.